{"id":89877,"date":"1999-12-31T00:37:00","date_gmt":"1999-12-30T13:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/smartoffice.com.au\/rocky-road-ahead-for-retail-deloitte\/"},"modified":"1999-12-31T00:37:00","modified_gmt":"1999-12-30T13:37:00","slug":"rocky-road-ahead-for-retail-deloitte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.strixdevelopment.net\/smartoffice\/1999\/12\/31\/rocky-road-ahead-for-retail-deloitte\/","title":{"rendered":"Rocky Road Ahead For Retail: Deloitte"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t expect 2013 sales growth to last, warns Deloitte.<\/p>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Australian retail sales is expected to jump 3% in 2012-13 financial year, driven by the strong growth early 2013, according to Deloitte Retail Forecasts.&nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">Although March quarter (Q1) sales rose 2.2% &#8211; the strongest result for six years &#8211; don&#8217;t expect it to last, as t<\/font><span style=\"font-size: small;\">he retail environment remains &#8220;extremely competitive.&#8221;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&#8220;That rate of sales growth is unlikely to be sustained for any length of time, with data for the month of April confirming much more modest retail sales growth&#8221;<\/span><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">&nbsp;warns the&nbsp;<\/font><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Retail Forecast, released today.&nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">Deloitte analysts predicts retail will dip slightly in 2013-14 to 2.8%, before rising 3% again in 2014-15 as employment growth improves.&nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\" style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The latest figures from ABS showed April retail&nbsp;<\/font><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">rose just 0.2%.&nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\" style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">&#8220;There are unlikely to be too many easy yards for retailers over the years ahead,<\/font><span style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: small;\">&#8221; the forecast indicates, as economic fundamentals including the slowing resources boom, weakening Aussie dollar and consumer confidence <\/span><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">don&#8217;t support it.&nbsp;<\/font><span style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: small;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Although the mining states<\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;of WA, Qld, NT powered the retail boom last year, so far in 2013 its a different story. &nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">NSW, Victoria and the ACT have led retail growth so far this year, along with Tasmania, which is clear from the ABS latest retail figures.&nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">The retail growth seen in the first quarter &#8211; was not resource-led but driven by low interest rates, notes Deloitte, adding retailers in WA and Queensland will face &#8220;challenges&#8221; as major projects start to detract from economic activity, although&nbsp;<\/font><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">population growth will still favour these States<\/font><font face=\"sans-serif\" style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">. &nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\" style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Several major retailers including JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman reported sales uplift sales in the early months of 2013 &#8211; JB&#8217;s January sales grew a whopping 12%, compared to single figure growth&nbsp;<\/font><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">for the previous six months to 31 December 2012<\/font><span style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: small;\">.&nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&#8220;Consumers have also become less confident over the past couple of months as the Reserve Bank has started to push the panic button.&#8221; Deloitte warns.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">But there are also other fundamental changes.&nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">Over the past year, non-food retailing has overtaken food as the stronger growing segment &#8211; which might be expected with record low interest rates.&nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">The unemployment rate will rise over 2013 and Australia&#8217;s main symbol of economic supremacy &#8211; the strong Aussie dollar against the US dollar has now slipped away &#8211;&nbsp;<\/font><span style=\"font-size: small;\">none of which are a strong grounding for robust retail sales, Deloitte says. &nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"NFBreak\" style=page-break-before: always contenteditable=\"false\">&nbsp;<\/div>\n<p>&#8220;<\/font><span style=\"font-size: small;\">However, over time, low interest rates and a lower $A are a combination which should work in the favour of Australian retailers, as the housing cycle turns and favours more spending on consumer durables,&#8221; according to the Retail Forecast.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">However, measures announced in the latest Federal budget will cut into disposable income, particularly during 2014-15.<\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&#8220;That won&#8217;t be devastating for consumer spending, but it will limit the upside which might otherwise have been seen from an expected peak in housing activity.&#8221;<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\" style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">And don&#8217;t expect tax cuts in future Federal budgets, either, as analysts note,&nbsp;<\/font><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\">the days of a tax cut every Federal budget &#8230;are now long gone.&#8221;&nbsp;<\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><font face=\"sans-serif\" size=\"2\"><br \/><\/font><\/div>\n<div style=\"font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t expect 2013 sales growth to last, warns Deloitte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,403],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-89877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-archive","category-research","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rocky Road Ahead For Retail: Deloitte - Smart Office<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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